Safe Withdrawal Rate Calculator
Will your money last? Enter your portfolio and spending to see the odds it survives your retirement, from thousands of simulated market paths.
| Withdrawal | 30 yrs | 40 yrs | 50 yrs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | 93% | 84% | 77% |
| 3.5% | 87% | 74% | 65% |
| 4.0% | 78% | 63% | 55% |
| 4.5% | 68% | 52% | 45% |
| 5.0% | 57% | 42% | 35% |
About this simulation
Each simulated year withdraws your spending (in today's dollars), then applies a random real return. A 5% mean with 15% volatility approximates a stock-heavy portfolio after inflation. Real markets have fat tails and long bad stretches, so treat the result as a guide, not a guarantee.
Frequently asked questions
What is a safe withdrawal rate?
The share of your starting portfolio you can withdraw each year, raised with inflation, without running out. The classic 4% rule comes from 30-year US retirements; longer early retirements usually call for 3.25%–3.75%.
How is the success rate calculated?
We simulate 4,000 random sequences of annual real returns (lognormal, with the mean and volatility you choose), withdraw the same inflation-adjusted amount each year, and count the share of paths that never hit zero.
What if the success rate is low?
Lower the withdrawal rate, plan to cut spending after bad years, or add income (part-time work, Social Security later). Flexibility raises real-world success more than any single number.
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For education only, not financial advice. Returns are assumptions, not promises; all figures are in today's dollars.